I work on the intersection of economics and computing, focusing on the technical and economic basis for AI automation. I'm currently the Associate Director of Epoch AI.
Research
My research focuses on the economics of computing, AI automation, and key trends that will likely shape the development of advanced AI systems.
AI and Economic Impacts
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Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments
Authors: Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu
Paper -
Economic impacts of AI-augmented R&D
Authors: Tamay Besiroglu, Nicholas Emery-Xu, Neil Thompson
Paper | Slides -
Estimating Idea Production: A Methodological Survey
Authors: Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu, Anson Ho
Paper | Blog -
Integrated assessment model for AI
(work in progress)
Playground | Code
Machine Learning and Computing
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Compute trends across three eras of machine learning
Authors: Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Pablo Villalobos
Paper | Blog | Code -
FrontierMath: A Benchmark for Evaluating Advanced Mathematical Reasoning in AI
Authors: Elliot Glazer, Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu, Diego Chicharro, Evan Chen, Alex Gunning, Caroline Falkman Olsson, Jean-Stanislas Denain, Anson Ho, Emily de Oliveira Santos, Olli Järviniemi, Matthew Barnett, Robert Sandler, Jaime Sevilla, Qiuyu Ren, Elizabeth Pratt, Lionel Levine, Grant Barkley, Natalie Stewart, Bogdan Grechuk, Tetiana Grechuk, Shreepranav Varma Enugandla
Paper | Website -
Algorithmic progress in language models
Authors: Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Ege Erdil, David Owen, Robi Rahman, Zifan Carl Guo, David Atkinson, Neil Thompson, Jaime Sevilla
Paper | Blog | Code -
Chinchilla Scaling: A Replication Attempt
Authors: Tamay Besiroglu, Ege Erdil, Matthew Barnett, Josh You
Paper | Blog -
International Scientific Report on the Safety of Advanced AI
Chair: Prof. Yoshua Bengio
Writing Group: Daniel Privitera (lead writer), Tamay Besiroglu, Rishi Bommasani, Stephen Casper, Yejin Choi, et al.
Report -
Algorithmic progress in computer vision
Authors: Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu
Paper | Code -
Limits to the Energy Efficiency of CMOS Microprocessors
Authors: Anson Ho, Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu
Paper | Code -
Will we run out of data? An analysis of the limits of scaling datasets in Machine Learning
Authors: Pablo Villalobos, Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Anson Ho
Paper | Code -
Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning
Authors: Jaime Sevilla, Pablo Villalobos, Juan Felipe Cerón, Matthew Burtell, Lennart Heim, Amogh B. Nanjajjar, Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Jean-Stanislas Denain, Owen Dudney
Dataset -
Securing America's Future: A Framework for Critical Technology Assessment
Large multistakeholder report
Report -
Toward trustworthy AI development: mechanisms for supporting verifiable claims
Large multistakeholder report
Paper -
Are models getting harder to find?
Author: Tamay Besiroglu
MPhil Thesis
Forecasting
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Chimeric forecasting: combining probabilistic predictions from computational models and human judgment
Authors: Thomas McAndrew, Allison Codi, Juan Cambeiro, Tamay Besiroglu, David Braun, Eva Chen, Luis Enrique Urtubey de Cesaris, Damon Luk
Paper -
Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19
Authors: Jan M Brauner, Sören Mindermann, Mrinank Sharma, David Johnston, John Salvatier, Tomáš Gavenčiak, Anna B Stephenson, Gavin Leech, George Altman, Vladimir Mikulik, Alexander John Norman, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, Tamay Besiroglu, et al.
Paper -
Tools and aggregation techniques for epidemiological forecasting
Authors: Thomas McAndrew, Juan Cambeiro, Allison Codi, Tamay Besiroglu, David Braun, Eva Chen, Luis Enrique Urtubey de Cesaris, et al.
Paper 1 | Paper 2 | Paper 3
Media
- I debated the possibility of explosive economic growth from AI with economist Matt Clancy in Asterisk magazine.
- My work on how compute, algorithms, and data contribute to advances in AI was featured in the UK Government's report on the capabilities and risks from frontier AI.
- My work on compute in Machine Learning was the first thing cited in Google's CEO Sundar Pichai's announcement of Bard.
- My work and datasets on the long-run history of AI feature in Our World In Data's The brief history of artificial intelligence .
- Time covered my work on the pace of progress in AI and on when AI might outsmart humans.
- An article I co-authored on data usage in AI was discussed in The Atlantic, New Scientist, and MIT Technology Review.
- I was on 5 Quick Questions with James Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute.
- The Economist’s June 2022 cover article on AI featured our work on compute trends in machine learning, as did their coverage on Large Language Models.
- The Financial Times and VentureBeat covered our work on promoting trustworthy AI development.
- The University of Cambridge's economics faculty wrote about me and my work on my COVID-19-related research.