I work on the intersection of economics and computing, focusing on the technical and economic basis for AI automation. I'm currently the Associate Director of Epoch AI.

Research

My research focuses on the economics of computing, AI automation, and key trends that will likely shape the development of advanced AI systems.

AI and Economic Impacts

  • Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments
    Authors: Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu
    Paper
  • Economic impacts of AI-augmented R&D
    Authors: Tamay Besiroglu, Nicholas Emery-Xu, Neil Thompson
    Paper | Slides
  • Estimating Idea Production: A Methodological Survey
    Authors: Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu, Anson Ho
    Paper | Blog
  • Integrated assessment model for AI
    (work in progress)
    Playground | Code

Machine Learning and Computing

  • Compute trends across three eras of machine learning
    Authors: Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Pablo Villalobos
    Paper | Blog | Code
  • FrontierMath: A Benchmark for Evaluating Advanced Mathematical Reasoning in AI
    Authors: Elliot Glazer, Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu, Diego Chicharro, Evan Chen, Alex Gunning, Caroline Falkman Olsson, Jean-Stanislas Denain, Anson Ho, Emily de Oliveira Santos, Olli Järviniemi, Matthew Barnett, Robert Sandler, Jaime Sevilla, Qiuyu Ren, Elizabeth Pratt, Lionel Levine, Grant Barkley, Natalie Stewart, Bogdan Grechuk, Tetiana Grechuk, Shreepranav Varma Enugandla
    Paper | Website
  • Algorithmic progress in language models
    Authors: Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Ege Erdil, David Owen, Robi Rahman, Zifan Carl Guo, David Atkinson, Neil Thompson, Jaime Sevilla
    Paper | Blog | Code
  • Chinchilla Scaling: A Replication Attempt
    Authors: Tamay Besiroglu, Ege Erdil, Matthew Barnett, Josh You
    Paper | Blog
  • International Scientific Report on the Safety of Advanced AI
    Chair: Prof. Yoshua Bengio
    Writing Group: Daniel Privitera (lead writer), Tamay Besiroglu, Rishi Bommasani, Stephen Casper, Yejin Choi, et al.
    Report
  • Algorithmic progress in computer vision
    Authors: Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu
    Paper | Code
  • Limits to the Energy Efficiency of CMOS Microprocessors
    Authors: Anson Ho, Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu
    Paper | Code
  • Will we run out of data? An analysis of the limits of scaling datasets in Machine Learning
    Authors: Pablo Villalobos, Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Anson Ho
    Paper | Code
  • Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning
    Authors: Jaime Sevilla, Pablo Villalobos, Juan Felipe Cerón, Matthew Burtell, Lennart Heim, Amogh B. Nanjajjar, Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Jean-Stanislas Denain, Owen Dudney
    Dataset
  • Securing America's Future: A Framework for Critical Technology Assessment
    Large multistakeholder report
    Report
  • Toward trustworthy AI development: mechanisms for supporting verifiable claims
    Large multistakeholder report
    Paper
  • Are models getting harder to find?
    Author: Tamay Besiroglu
    MPhil Thesis
  • Chimeric forecasting: combining probabilistic predictions from computational models and human judgment
    Authors: Thomas McAndrew, Allison Codi, Juan Cambeiro, Tamay Besiroglu, David Braun, Eva Chen, Luis Enrique Urtubey de Cesaris, Damon Luk
    Paper
  • Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19
    Authors: Jan M Brauner, Sören Mindermann, Mrinank Sharma, David Johnston, John Salvatier, Tomáš Gavenčiak, Anna B Stephenson, Gavin Leech, George Altman, Vladimir Mikulik, Alexander John Norman, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, Tamay Besiroglu, et al.
    Paper
  • Tools and aggregation techniques for epidemiological forecasting
    Authors: Thomas McAndrew, Juan Cambeiro, Allison Codi, Tamay Besiroglu, David Braun, Eva Chen, Luis Enrique Urtubey de Cesaris, et al.
    Paper 1 | Paper 2 | Paper 3

Media