I'm the Associate Director of Epoch, and research affiliate at MIT CSAIL. I work on the intersection of economics and computing, focusing on the technical and economic basis for AI automation. I further advise a few groups, such as the Center for Space Governance, the forecasting technology platform Metaculus, and MIT AI Alignment (MAIA).

Research

My research focuses on the economics of computing, AI automation, and big-picture trends in machine learning.

AI and Economic Impacts

Illustration for Algorithmic progress in computer vision

Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments

Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu

Partial Screenshot from Economic impacts of AI-augmented R&D

Economic impacts of AI-augmented R&D

Tamay Besiroglu, Nicholas Emery-Xu, Neil Thompson

Illustration for Algorithmic progress in computer vision

Integrated assessment model for AI

(work in progress)

Machine Learning and Computing

Screenshot of Compute trends across three eras of machine learning

Compute trends across three eras of machine learning

Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Pablo Villalobos

Illustration for Algorithmic progress in computer vision

Algorithmic progress in computer vision

Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu

Limits to the Energy Efficiency of CMOS Microprocessors

Limits to the Energy Efficiency of CMOS Microprocessors

Anson Ho, Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu

Illustration for Will we run out of data?

Will we run out of data? An analysis of the limits of scaling datasets in Machine Learning

Pablo Villalobos, Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Anson Ho

Illustration for Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning

Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning

Jaime Sevilla, Pablo Villalobos, Juan Felipe Cerón, Matthew Burtell, Lennart Heim, Amogh B. Nanjajjar, Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Jean-Stanislas Denain, and Owen Dudney

Securing America's Future A Framework for Critical Technology Assessment

Large multistakeholder report

Illustration for Toward trustworthy AI development

Toward trustworthy AI development: mechanisms for supporting verifiable claims

Miles Brundage, Shahar Avin, Jasmine Wang, Haydn Belfield, Gretchen Krueger, Gillian Hadfield, Heidy Khlaaf, Jingying Yang, Helen Toner, Ruth Fong, Tegan Maharaj, Pang Wei Koh, Sara Hooker, Jade Leung, Andrew Trask, Emma Bluemke, Jonathan Lebensold, Cullen O'Keefe, Mark Koren, Théo Ryffel, JB Rubinovitz, Tamay Besiroglu, et al.

Illustration for Are models getting harder to find?

Are models getting harder to find?

Tamay Besiroglu

Illustration for Chimeric forecasting

Chimeric forecasting: combining probabilistic predictions from computational models and human judgment

Thomas McAndrew, Allison Codi, Juan Cambeiro, Tamay Besiroglu, David Braun, Eva Chen, Luis Enrique Urtubey de Cesaris, Damon Luk

Illustration for Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions

Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19

Jan M Brauner, Sören Mindermann, Mrinank Sharma, David Johnston, John Salvatier, Tomáš Gavenčiak, Anna B Stephenson, Gavin Leech, George Altman, Vladimir Mikulik, Alexander John Norman, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, Tamay Besiroglu, et al.

Illustration for Tools and aggregation techniques for epidemiological forecasting

Tools and aggregation techniques for epidemiological forecasting

Thomas McAndrew, Juan Cambeiro, Allison Codi, Tamay Besiroglu, David Braun, Eva Chen, Luis Enrique Urtubey de Cesaris, et al.

Media