Tamay Besiroglu

Research

My research focuses on the economics of computing, AI automation, and big-picture trends in machine learning.

AI and Economic Impacts

Explosive growth from AI automation: A review of the arguments

Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu

Paper

Economic impacts of AI-augmented R&D

Tamay Besiroglu, Nicholas Emery-Xu, Neil Thompson

Paper Slides

Integrated assessment model for AI

(work in progress)

Playground Code

Machine Learning and Computing

Compute trends across three eras of machine learning

Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Pablo Villalobos

Paper Blog Code

Algorithmic progress in language models

Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Ege Erdil, David Owen, Robi Rahman, Zifan Carl Guo, David Atkinson, Neil Thompson, Jaime Sevilla

Paper Blog Code

Algorithmic progress in computer vision

Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu

Paper Code

Limits to the Energy Efficiency of CMOS Microprocessors

Anson Ho, Ege Erdil, Tamay Besiroglu

Paper Code

Will we run out of data? An analysis of the limits of scaling datasets in Machine Learning

Pablo Villalobos, Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Anson Ho

Paper Code

Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning

Jaime Sevilla, Pablo Villalobos, Juan Felipe Cerón, Matthew Burtell, Lennart Heim, Amogh B. Nanjajjar, Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Jean-Stanislas Denain, and Owen Dudney

Dataset Our World in Data

Securing America's Future A Framework for Critical Technology Assessment

Large multistakeholder report

Report

Toward trustworthy AI development: mechanisms for supporting verifiable claims

Miles Brundage, Shahar Avin, Jasmine Wang, Haydn Belfield, Gretchen Krueger, Gillian Hadfield, Heidy Khlaaf, Jingying Yang, Helen Toner, Ruth Fong, Tegan Maharaj, Pang Wei Koh, Sara Hooker, Jade Leung, Andrew Trask, Emma Bluemke, Jonathan Lebensold, Cullen O'Keefe, Mark Koren, Théo Ryffel, JB Rubinovitz, Tamay Besiroglu, et al.

Paper

Are models getting harder to find?

Tamay Besiroglu

MPhil Thesis

Forecasting

Chimeric forecasting: combining probabilistic predictions from computational models and human judgment

Thomas McAndrew, Allison Codi, Juan Cambeiro, Tamay Besiroglu, David Braun, Eva Chen, Luis Enrique Urtubey de Cesaris, Damon Luk

Paper

Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19

Jan M Brauner, Sören Mindermann, Mrinank Sharma, David Johnston, John Salvatier, Tomáš Gavenčiak, Anna B Stephenson, Gavin Leech, George Altman, Vladimir Mikulik, Alexander John Norman, Joshua Teperowski Monrad, Tamay Besiroglu, et al.

Paper

Tools and aggregation techniques for epidemiological forecasting

Thomas McAndrew, Juan Cambeiro, Allison Codi, Tamay Besiroglu, David Braun, Eva Chen, Luis Enrique Urtubey de Cesaris, et al.

Paper 1 Paper 2 Paper 3

Media

• I debated the possibility of explosive economic growth from AI with economist Matt Clancy in Asterisk magazine
• My work on how compute, algorithms and data contributes to advances in AI was featured in the UK Government's report on the capabilities and risks from frontier AI
• My work on compute in Machine Learning was the first thing cited in Google's CEO Sundar Pichai's announcement of Bard
• My work and datasets on the long-run history of AI feature in Our World In Data's The brief history of artificial intelligence
• Time covered my work onthe pace of progress in AI and on when AI might outsmart humans
• An article I co-authored was on data-usage in AI was discussed in The Atlantic, New Scientist, and MIT Technology Review
• I was on 5 Quick Questions with James Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute
• The Economist’s June 2022 cover article on AI featured our work on compute trends in machine learning, as did their coverage on Large Language Models
• The Financial Times and VentureBeat covered our work on promoting trustworthy AI development
• The University of Cambridge's economics faculty wrote about me and my work on my COVID-19-related work